Editor's letter: Don't let inflation flare up again

Sometimes I think we did ‘disaster’ better in the 70s. Somehow the first oil crisis seemed scary as well as painful...

Written by Andrew Sawers

Governments struggled to survive in a decade in which the populace went to the polls no fewer than four times, in the last of which a lame duck Labour prime minister had taken over part-way through a parliament and then lost a vote of confidence ­ and then the general election. Industrial action ­ the oxymoron that defined ‘the British disease’ ­ was truly crippling, destroying the car industry and bringing the country almost to its knees as London’s Leicester Square filled up with uncollected rubbish ­ and rats ­ while the army put out fires. You can add to this list of disasters flared trousers.

And then there was inflation. Right, proper inflation we had back then, double-digit stuff that, thanks in part to a particularly hopeless Conservative government that ducked the problem by fuelling it, zoomed right on upwards towards 28%, if memory serves. Interest rates went all to hell of course, too. Base rates in the high-teens by the end of the decade, with only a toe-hold on single digits throughout the ensuing 80s.

So as we sit here watching inflation “soar” to a dizzy 4-point-something percent (or is it 3-point-something? We only had one inflation index to contend with in the 70s), it’s easy to think that this is much ado about not very much. If that’s your view then read Phil Thornton’s article on page 15 about the looming battle between the Bank of England, which wants to go hawkish on inflation, and the Treasury, which would prefer it if the Bank could also bear in mind its obligations to support the government’s objectives for growth and employment.

The Bank must not lose its nerve, nor undermine the fragile confidence in the market that it will do the job that needs to be done. ‘A little inflation’ is like being ‘a little pregnant’. It is a tax on the poor and a corrosive substance that eats away at industrial investment. See how long gilt yields are already edging up as inflation expectations start to ooze into the financial markets. Governor Mervyn King is talking tough, but it isn’t solely his decision. May he embolden the monetary policy committee to prevent rising commodity costs from feeding through the whole supply chain and into wage packets.

It makes me wonder, though: what do they teach Treasury economists these days? Do they still think you can have inflation or unemployment? Does the concept of stagflation not feature yet on a training programme still stuck in a pre-war Keynesian time warp? Or is there simply no one old enough to remember what it was like? Either way, the Treasury must yield to the Bank on this one. Stagflation is a phenomenon (and a word) as ugly as a pair of flares.

Tags:

reader comments

related articles

 

related whitepapers

today's top stories

Learning from the credit crunch to avoid a broadband crunch

While it might be the most pressing issue de jour , the financial system isn’t the only area where government needs to... 10 Oct 2008

How careerism can warp IT procurement

Many working in IT put their career interests before those of their employer when weighing up purchasing options 10 Oct 2008

City in pressing need of skilled IT matchmakers

With the financial services sector plunging ever deeper into an M&A maelstrom, IT leaders are having their systems integration skills and due diligence expertise tested as never before 09 Oct 2008

The definitive guide to software development

Five key trends and five best practice tips to help you improve your programming capabilities 09 Oct 2008

Computing podcast - IT implications of the banking crisis, and the FSA clamps down on IT security

We discuss the effect of shotgun mergers and acquisitions on financial services IT staff, and examine the industry regulator's plan to fine directors for information security breaches 09 Oct 2008

Advertisement

Newsletter signup

Sign up for our range of FREE newsletters:

Existing User

Newsletter user login:

Jobs

Related jobs

Job of the week

Job alerts

Sign up here

Find your next job


IT Salary Checker

Check salary here

Advertisement

White papers

Search white papers

Top categories

VPN, Extranet and Intranet Solutions

WAN/ LAN Solutions

Network Security

Interoperability-Connectivity

Grid/ Utility Computing

Latest poll

Would you apply for a job that was advertised on Facebook or a similar social networking site?

Would you apply for a job that was advertised on Facebook or a similar social networking site?

The government is using Facebook to recruit IT staff - would you apply to such an ad?

Previous poll results

Latest audio and video articles

programming codeVideo

The definitive guide to software development

Five key trends and five best practice tips to help you improve your programming capabilities 09 Oct 2008

Podcast imageAudio

Computing podcast - IT implications of the banking crisis, and the FSA clamps down on IT security

We discuss the effect of shotgun mergers and acquisitions on financial services IT staff, and examine the industry regulator's plan to fine directors for information security breaches 09 Oct 2008

Latest in-depth articles

Financial Services Authority buildingAnalysis

FSA threatens executives with fines

Senior management to be held accountable for security lapses at banks 09 Oct 2008

Comment

Broadband must be a spending priority

For the economic health of the nation, the government would do better to bankroll an optical fibre rollout rather than prop up profligate banks 09 Oct 2008

Advertisement

Primary Navigation