Tablet PCs accounted for one percent of portable PC sales in western Europe in the fourth quarter of 2002, according to UK market research firm Context. This is despite the fact that Tablet PCs were only launched in November.
The prediction by analyst company Gartner that only 425,000 Tablet PCs would be sold in 2003 - which would be one percent of all portables - now looks pessimistic.
Other indicators are also positive for Tablet PCs, which run an optimised version of Windows XP. Toshiba said 11 percent of the business-to-business products it sells are Tablet PCs and that over 100 firms have asked for evaluation models. Fujitsu Siemens said that Tablet PCs were attracting particular interest from market research, salesforce automation, and utilities sectors. Large customers each plan to run 500 to 1,000 pen-tablet units, translating into £1m-plus contracts, it added.
Mark Erickson, a senior director at Phoenix Technologies, a developer of Bios software used in Tablet PCs, believes that sales could be as high as 750,000 units in 2003, far beyond Gartner's forecast.
"What we're seeing in the marketplace is better than we thought," said Erickson. "The Tablet PC has a very high cool factor. Early adopters get to walk around with something their friends don't have - it's a prestige thing like driving a Jaguar. Also, if I can take notes electronically [and have a wireless connection to the network], I don't need anything else."
Erickson said that two Taiwanese clone firms have recently licensed the Tablet PC design - an indicator, possibly, of a volume mainstream market emerging.
The good sales figures are particularly impressive given the economic climate and widespread scepticism about non-standard computer formats, and the fact that the first incarnation of Windows pen-based computers found few buyers in the early 1990s.
It appears that the early Tablet PCs designs have delighted users, and a combination of wireless networking, mobility and a fashion factor are attracting customers.
"Where you have [installations with] ageing laptops and Wi-Fi being rolled out, Tablet PCs are attractive," said Leslie Fiering, vice president for mobile computing at Gartner, and the author of Tablet PC Is Coming, But Slowly, a report on the potential of Tablet PCs.
However, Fiering believes that some of the initial sales may have been driven by a spike in demand from specific industries where roaming users need to capture data; and by early adopters who purchase as much for fashion as anything else.
"Tablet PC will not die because of the state of the economy, because at least [specific industries] will be buying them," Fiering said. "The healthcare sector is very interested, for example."
And, even though its predictions for early sales are conservative, Gartner foresees a bright long-term future for the flat PC format. The company forecasts that by 2007 at least 35 percent of all notebooks will have screen digitisers.
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