One sure sign that a technology is making progress is when its vendors consolidate and rationalise. That certainly seems to be happening now among providers of service-oriented architectures (SOAs), where the IT giants are making acquisitions at an ever-faster rate.

IBM has announced three high-value acquisitions in as many weeks, with FileNet, Webify and MRO Software. HP has agreed only one recent purchase, but it is a big one – Mercury Interactive. However, there is already speculation that this will not be HP’s only target in the near future, and names such as Tibco, WebMethods and Sybase are in the frame.

Cisco also has an interest in where SOAs might lead. Cisco’s recent acquisition of a majority stake in datacentre specialist Nuova is seen as a first step towards launching a subsidiary operation selling systems to support SOAs in datacentres.

All these major brands now have technology to contribute to SOA infrastructures, and they see a growing demand for related hardware and software, as well as services and support.

It is often said that most large markets – be it for airliners or soap powders – are eventually dominated by at most three major vendors, due to the inevitable economies of mass production. The leading players in SOAs show every sign of gearing up to dominate in this way. By acquiring technologies from other firms they stand a better chance of developing sufficiently comprehensive product suites that will readily integrate and interoperate.

If they succeed, it will be good news for IT buyers, both technically and economically. Service-based infrastructures are likely to be complex environments made up of many different technologies. They will make many current enterprise environments look like a Sinclair ZX80. If a single vendor can supply the whole system, it is likely to be technically more robust and economically more viable than a mix-and-match, best-of-breed selection made by an IT department.

Only the biggest vendors will have the economic clout to cover all possible technology bases, but it is unlikely that they will wipe out all competition. A lot of niche SOA brands will appear or remain, which will essentially sell the same software but with a unique set of integration and consultancy services, to suit firms’ individual needs.

This kind of consolidation is not all bad for buyers. Buying from a single vendor means there is a single throat to choke in the event of problems. It’s obviously much harder for a vendor to wriggle out of responsibility for a hitch when they specified, supplied and built the whole shooting match.